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China has sent its coast guard through the waters of the Senkaku islands and military drones near outlying Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up tensions over the Japan's leader's remarks regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has indicated it demands a retraction from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the United States and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, active near the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to three drones operating near the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. Taiwan documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Japan by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.