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Mounting concerns are present regarding the possibility of military engagement among Horn of Africa neighbors, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as hostile rhetoric has escalated in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for entry to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has sparked a intense rhetorical conflict.

Ethiopian Prime Minister first openly declared in the previous year that his nation's maritime access was an vital issue, statements that Eritrea dismissed.

Ties between the neighboring nations have often been tense. After a long-standing battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a extensive maritime frontage, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, rendering it without sea access.

Subsequently, a border war erupted in which more than 100,000 people died.

Current Comments from Ethiopia's Leadership

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted control of Eritrean maritime facility of the port of Assab – some 60 km from the frontier - and suggested the desire to take it by force.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said the country's "error" of losing entry to the Red Sea as a because of Eritrean independence would be "addressed in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be restored "through military action".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Statements

In the face of ongoing warnings from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been limited to brief comments on X from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

Officials have denied Ethiopian requests for maritime entry labeling it "risky" and a "negative policy" of "expansionism" – a approach of retaking lost territory.

Eritrean authorities alerted on recently that efforts to validate "blatant hostility" would have serious consequences for Ethiopia and its regional partners and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Movements on the Ground

There have been few indications of significant troop deployments in the frontier regions between the both nations.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, national TV has shown completion events of many recruits at multiple army bases.

The head of personnel division of the military, the officer, recently said in an discussion that the military was in a "reliable position" as "tens of thousands of youths" were entering service, which he said was "a message to our adversaries".

Historical Origins of the Tension

For over fifty years from the late 19th century, Eritrea was ruled by Italian colonisers.

Following the end of Italian rule, it was then administered by the British military before turning into a associated territory of Ethiopia.

But in the early 1960s the Ethiopian emperor terminated this arrangement and Eritrea became completely integrated into the Ethiopian state.

A extended civil war followed, ending with military reversal in the early 1990s. Sovereignty was then confirmed by the population in a plebiscite in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they clashed over the exact location of their shared boundary, leading to conflict in 1998.

Although this finished in a truce in 2000, it was partially applied, and the both countries stayed at in dispute.

This ended in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders endorsed a statement that the hostilities was finished – a move that earned the Prime Minister the international recognition.

The neighboring states were then partners in the country's 2020-2022 armed struggle in Tigray.

But relations have since broken down anew.